Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 23.053917 25.100831 27.314761 29.899048 32.847824 36.125521 40.069412
2025-11-30 19.718752 22.477522 25.669242 29.680119 34.651466 40.701405 48.766072
2025-12-07 17.468658 20.632970 24.493791 29.648592 36.507754 45.564949 58.878495
2025-12-14 15.733670 19.112883 23.415661 29.456477 38.000481 50.140347 69.718837
2025-12-21 14.833398 18.494098 23.345918 30.496343 41.245875 57.731167 87.173313
2025-12-28 13.681591 17.390569 22.456625 30.207047 42.436236 62.408535 101.385986
2026-01-04 12.805282 16.558849 21.826462 30.166304 43.938717 67.852167 118.953694
2026-01-11 12.162362 15.982623 21.482721 30.482974 46.029456 74.764938 142.462855
2026-01-18 11.472205 15.272175 20.857754 30.250336 47.101837 79.992544 164.728445
2026-01-25 10.881870 14.657388 20.313162 30.066949 48.205447 85.534340 190.910359
2026-02-01 10.391550 14.152627 19.888897 30.024591 49.547567 91.930755 223.768403
2026-02-08 9.921906 13.644459 19.412506 29.827439 50.538971 97.802332 259.551111
2026-02-15 9.475211 13.152875 18.939817 29.614207 51.531929 104.184618 304.089670
2026-02-22 9.062056 12.689054 18.478729 29.375008 52.444873 110.740759 357.378666
2026-03-01 8.719737 12.316622 18.141960 29.332635 53.791872 119.027086 431.154065
2026-03-08 8.380699 11.928899 17.749454 29.137976 54.759987 126.632288 515.472003
2026-03-15 8.262701 11.892827 17.960319 30.158880 58.827881 145.842031 726.568243
2026-03-22 7.954059 11.522811 17.553154 29.872797 59.595804 154.339239 884.283537
2026-03-29 7.704056 11.237406 17.277714 29.832042 61.000379 165.962665 1129.673550
2026-04-05 7.520282 11.053669 17.173339 30.143369 63.423266 183.069747 1569.418562
2026-04-12 7.276935 10.755490 16.837633 29.914267 64.303018 194.312364 2035.757633
2026-04-19 7.055774 10.485099 16.537020 29.733708 65.300283 206.877398 2732.314370
2026-04-26 6.865645 10.259798 16.307649 29.691983 66.716477 222.639284 3933.884384